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HERO ID
1322985
Reference Type
Journal Article
Title
Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860–2100: Variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution
Author(s)
Turner, AJ; Fiore, AM; Horowitz, LW; Naik, V; Bauer, M
Year
2012
Is Peer Reviewed?
Yes
Journal
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
ISSN:
1680-7367
EISSN:
1680-7375
Volume
12
Issue
8
Page Numbers
21679-21712
Language
English
DOI
10.5194/acpd-12-21679-2012
Web of Science Id
WOS:000314172200006
URL
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/21679/2012/
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Abstract
Prior work indicates that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones tracking across the Great Lakes Storm Track (GLST, bounded by: 70 degrees W, 90 degrees W, 40 degrees N, and 50 degrees N) are strongly anticorrelated with ozone (O-3) pollution episodes over the Northeastern United States (US). We apply the MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS) algorithm to 6-hourly sea level pressure fields from over 2500 yr of simulations with the GFDL CM3 global coupled chemistry-climate model. These simulations include (1) 875 yr with constant 1860 emissions and forcings (Pre-industrial Control), (2) five ensemble members for 18602005 emissions and forcings (Historical), and (3) future (2006-2100) scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a sensitivity simulation to isolate the role of climate warming from changes in O-3 precursor emissions (RCP 4.5*). The GFDL CM3 Historical simulations capture the mean and variability of summertime cyclones traversing the GLST within the range determined from four reanalysis datasets. Over the 21st century (2006-2100), the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones in the GLST decreases under the RCP 8.5 scenario and in the RCP 4.5 ensemble mean. These trends are significant when assessed relative to the variability in the Pre-industrial Control simulation. In addition, the RCP 4.5* scenario enables us to determine the relationship between summertime GLST cyclones and high-O-3 events (> 95th percentile) in the absence of emission changes. The summertime GLST cyclone frequency explains less than 10% of the variability in high-O-3 events over the Northeastern US in the model, implying that other factors play an equally important role in determining high-O-3 events.
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ISA-Ozone (2013 Final Project Page)
Cited
Final
Health Effects
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ISA-Ozone (2020 Final Project Page)
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ISA-PM (2019)
Peer Input Draft
Chapter 10
Considered
1st Draft
Chapter 13
In Scope
Atmospheric Science
Final ISA
Chapter 13
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