Policy for use of probabilistic analysis in risk assessment
HERO ID
1064766
Reference Type
Technical Report
Subtype
EPA Report
Year
1997
Language
English
| HERO ID | 1064766 |
|---|---|
| Material Type | EPA Report |
| Year | 1997 |
| Title | Policy for use of probabilistic analysis in risk assessment |
| Authoring Organization | U.S. Environmental Protection Agency |
| Publisher Text | U.S. Environmental Protection Agency |
| City | Washington, DC |
| Abstract | The importance of adequately characterizing variability and uncertainty in risk assessments has been emphasized in several science and policy documents. These include the 1992 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Exposure Assessment Guidelines, the 1992 EPA Risk Assessment Council (RAC) Guidance, the 1995 EPA Policy for Risk Characterization, the EPA Proposed Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment, the EPA Region 3 Technical Guidance Manual on Risk Assessment, the EPA Region 8 Superfund Technical Guidance, the 1994 National Academy of Sciences "Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment," and the report by the Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management. As part of the implementation of the recommendations contained in these reports, the Agency is issuing guidance on the appropriate use of an application for analyzing variability and uncertainty in Agency risk assessments. This policy and the guiding principles attached are designed to support the use of various techniques for characterizing variability and uncertainty. Further, the policy defines a set of Conditions for Acceptance. These conditions are important for ensuring good scientific practice in quantifying uncertainty and variability. In accordance with EPA's 1995 Policy for Risk Characterization, this policy also emphasizes the importance of clarity, transparency, reasonableness, and consistency in risk assessments. There are a variety of different methods for characterizing uncertainty and variability. These methods cover a broad range of complexity from the simple comparison of discrete points to probabilistic techniques like Monte Carlo analysis. Recently, interest in using Monte Carlo analysis for risk assessment has increased. This method has the advantage of allowing the analyst to account for relationships between input variables and of providing the flexibility to investigate the effects of different modeling assumptions. Experience has shown that to benefit fully from the advantages of such probabilistic techniques as Monte Carlo analysis, certain standards of practice are to be observed. The Agency is issuing, therefore, this policy statement and associated guiding principles. While Monte Carlo analysis is the most frequently encountered probabilistic tool for analyzing variability and uncertainty in risk assessments, the intent of this policy is not to indicate that Monte Carlo analysis is the only acceptable approach for Agency risk assessments. The spirit of this policy and the Conditions for Acceptance described herein are equally applicable to other methods for analyzing variability and uncertainty. |
| Is Certified Translation | No |
| Dupe Override | No |
| Number Of Pages | 4 |
| Is Public | Yes |
| Language Text | English |
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