Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers
Gasparrini, A; Pizzo, AM; Gorini, G; Costantini, AS; Silvestri, S; Ciapini, C; Innocenti, A; Berry, G
HERO ID
709475
Reference Type
Journal Article
Year
2008
Language
English
PMID
| HERO ID | 709475 |
|---|---|
| In Press | No |
| Year | 2008 |
| Title | Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers |
| Authors | Gasparrini, A; Pizzo, AM; Gorini, G; Costantini, AS; Silvestri, S; Ciapini, C; Innocenti, A; Berry, G |
| Journal | European Journal of Epidemiology |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue | 8 |
| Page Numbers | 541-546 |
| Abstract | BACKGROUND:Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups. OBJECTIVE: To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers. METHODS: The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung. RESULTS: The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005-2050 was 15-30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23-35 for mesothelioma. CONCLUSION: This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts. |
| Doi | 10.1007/s10654-008-9257-z |
| Pmid | 18438715 |
| Wosid | WOS:000257581900005 |
| Is Certified Translation | No |
| Dupe Override | No |
| Is Public | Yes |
| Language Text | English |
| Keyword | Asbestos, Predictions; Mesothelioma; Lung Cancer |
| Is Qa | No |