US EPA

1573751 

Journal Article 

The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of dark chocolate consumption as prevention therapy in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: best case scenario analysis using a Markov model 

Zomer, E; Owen, A; Magliano, DJ; Liew, D; Reid, CM 

2012 

Yes 

British Medical Journal
ISSN: 0007-1447 

344 

22653982 

10.1136/bmj.e3657 

WOS:000304857000007 

Objective To model the long term effectiveness and cost
effectiveness of daily dark chocolate consumption in a population with metabolic syndrome at high
risk of cardiovascular disease. Design Best case scenario analysis using a Markov model. Setting
Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Participants 2013 people with hypertension who
met the criteria for metabolic syndrome, with no history of cardiovascular disease and not
receiving antihypertensive therapy. Main outcome measures Treatment effects associated with dark
chocolate consumption derived from published meta-analyses were used to determine the absolute
number of cardiovascular events with and without treatment. Costs associated with cardiovascular
events and treatments were applied to determine the potential amount of funding required for dark
chocolate therapy to be considered cost effective. Results Daily consumption of dark chocolate
(polyphenol content equivalent to 100 g of dark chocolate) can reduce cardiovascular events by 85
(95% confidence interval 60 to 105) per 10 000 population treated over 10 years. $A40 (25; pound
(sic)31; $42) could be cost effectively spent per person per year on prevention strategies using
dark chocolate. These results assume 100% compliance and represent a best case scenario.
Conclusions The blood pressure and cholesterol lowering effects of dark chocolate consumption are
beneficial in the prevention of cardiovascular events in a population with metabolic syndrome.
Daily dark chocolate consumption could be an effective cardiovascular preventive strategy in this
population.