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533151 
Journal Article 
On the causal relationship between fiscal and macroeconomic variables: A directed graphs approach 
Wang, DH; Bessler, DA; Yu, TH 
2008 
4 
5 
1055-1062 
English 
This study uses an error correction model and directed acyclic graphs to investigate the dynamic structure of the budget deficit, private investment and economic growth of Taiwan over the period 1971-2004. Our findings indicate that the budget deficit, private investment and economic growth are cointegrated. The directed graph results show that the innovations in private investment lead real GDP and the innovations in budget deficits lead real GDP and interest rates in contemporaneous time. And, the budget deficit is the major contribution to the changes of private investment and economic growth. 
directed graph; cointegration; budget deficit; autoregressive time-series; unit-root; budget deficits; cointegration; economy; demand; crowd