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7124798 
Journal Article 
Fallout of lead over Paris from the 2019 Notre-Dame cathedral fire 
van Geen, A; Yao, Y; Ellis, T; Gelman, A 
2020 
GeoHealth
EISSN: 2471-1403 
4 
8 
e2020GH000279 
English 
33855247 
WOS:000565636900008 
The roof and spire of Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris that caught fire and collapsed on 15 April 2019 were covered with 460 t of lead (Pb). Government reports documented Pb deposition immediately downwind of the cathedral and a twentyfold increase in airborne Pb concentrations at a distance of 50 km in the aftermath. For this study, we collected 100 samples of surface soil from tree pits, parks, and other sites in all directions within 1 km of the cathedral. Concentrations of Pb measured by X-ray fluorescence range from 30 to 9,000 mg/kg across the area, with a higher proportion of elevated concentrations to the northwest of the cathedral, in the direction of the wind prevailing during the fire. By integrating these observations with a Gaussian process regression model, we estimate that the average concentration of Pb in surface soil downwind of the cathedral is 430 (95% interval, 300-590) mg/kg, nearly double the average Pb concentration in the other directions of 240 (95% interval, 170-320) mg/kg. The difference corresponds to an integrated excess Pb inventory within a 1 km radius of 1.0 (95% interval, 0.5-1.5) t, about 0.2% of all the Pb covering the roof and spire. This is over 6 times the estimated amount of Pb deposited downwind 1-50 km from the cathedral. To what extent the concentrated fallout within 1 km documented here temporarily exposed the downwind population to Pb is difficult to confirm independently because too few soil, dust, and blood samples were collected immediately after the fire. 
emergency response; fallout; lead contamination; statistical modeling