US EPA

7499385 

Journal Article 

Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs 

Sofiev, M; Winebrake, JJ; Johansson, L; Carr, EW; Prank, M; Soares, J; Vira, J; Kouznetsov, R; Jalkanen, JP; Corbett, JJ 

2018 

1 

Nature Communications
EISSN: 2041-1723 

9 

1 

406 

English 

29410475 

10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9 

WOS:000424290900001 

We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.