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1518905 
Journal Article 
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 
Meinshausen, M; Smith, SJ; Calvin, K; Daniel, JS; Kainuma, MLT; Lamarque, JF; Matsumoto, K; Montzka, SA; Raper, SCB; Riahi, K; Thomson, A; Velders, GJM; Vuuren, DPP 
2011 
Yes 
Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480 
109 
1-2 
213-241 
English 
WOS:000297350200010 
We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended
Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases
and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We
combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse
gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750-2005) with harmonized emissions projected by
four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005-2100. As concentrations are somewhat
dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas
cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected
'best-estimate' global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate
sensitivity of 3 degrees C) range from 1.5 degrees C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs,
called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5 degrees C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-
industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based
on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For
example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by
assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO2 emissions), leading to CO2
concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one
supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to
go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21(st) century followed
the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and
ECPs. 
Meteorology; Greenhouse gases; Climate change; Emissions; Simulation; Laboratories; Research; 21st century; Carbon cycle; Time series; Carbon dioxide