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HERO ID
4170700
Reference Type
Journal Article
Title
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of PnET-BGC to inform the development of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) of acidity in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park
Author(s)
Fakhraei, HK; Driscoll, CT; Kulp, MA; Renfro, JR; Blett, TF; Brewer, PF; Schwartz, JS
Year
2017
Is Peer Reviewed?
Yes
Journal
Environmental Modelling and Software
ISSN:
1364-8152
Volume
95
Page Numbers
156-167
DOI
10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.013
Web of Science Id
WOS:000406177500013
Relationship(s)
is supplemented by
4176879
: Supplementary materials
Abstract
The biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, has been used to evaluate the long-term acid-base response of surface waters to changes in atmospheric acid deposition. We propose a methodology to identify the input factors of greatest model sensitivity and propagate uncertainty of input factors to model outputs. The quantified model uncertainty enabled application of an "exceedance probability" approach to determine allowable atmospheric deposition in the form of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for twelve acid-impaired streams in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Results indicate that acidification of surface water resulting from acidic deposition has been substantial. Even if current atmospheric deposition is reduced to pre-industrial levels, only one of the twelve impaired streams might be recovered to its site-specific standard by 2050. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the model is most sensitive to precipitation quantity, air temperature and calcium weathering rate, and suggests further research to improve characterization of these inputs. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Critical loads; First-order sensitivity index; Great Smoky Mountains National Park; Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis; Morris one-factor-at-a-time sensitivity analysis; Stream acidity
Tags
•
ISA NOxSOxPM Ecology (2018)
Cited in the Second Draft
Chapter 1
Appendix 8
Appendix 16
16.3 Southeast
•
ISA NOxSOxPM Ecology (2020- Final Project Page)
Cited
Integrated Synthesis
Appendix 8
Appendix 16
16.3 Southeast
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