US EPA

534584 

Journal Article 

Reserves and resources of the geosphere, terms so often misunderstood. Is the life index of reserves of natural resources a guide to the future? 

Wellmer, FW 

2008 

1 

Zeitschrift der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Geowissenschaften
ISSN: 1860-1804
EISSN: 1861-4094 

159 

4 

575-590 

10.1127/1860-1804/2008/0159-0575 

WOS:000261786600001 

Against the background of the climate change discussion worldwide, especially in the industrialized countries, connected with efforts to increase the share of renewable energies and in Germany the plan to phase out nuclear power generation, the issue of the lifetimes of fossil energy and uranium resources is presently widely discussed. At the same time a more technical discussion takes place about lifetimes of reserves and availability of certain electronic and precious elements needed in high-tech applications. Reserves, the share of the total resources that can be economically extracted with actual technology, and resources, known but not economically extractable at present, are dynamic quantities. Technology improves to convert resources into reserves. Through active exploration geopotentials are transferred into reserves and resources. Reserves grow along with increasing consumption. Therefore, the reserve/consumption (R/C) ratio is not the "life time of reserves", but an equilibrium value, typical for each commodity. For crude oil e.g. the R/C ratio has a value of about 40, for zinc and lead of between 20 and 25, ratios which either improved within the last 50 years or stayed constant Without any shortages experienced. The R/C ratio is nothing but a snapshot in a dynamically developing system. For conventional oil alone it is possible to estimate reserves, resources plus geopotential in such a way that via an extrapolated logistic production curve an "estimated ultimate recovery" (EUR) can be quantified. Reflections about reconciling the consumption of nonrenewable resources with the challenge of intergeneration fairness within the context of sustainable development lead to the conclusion that we do not need natural resources as such, but we need their functions. To find solutions for functions man's means arc all the resources of the geosphere, the primary resources, and of the technosphere, the secondary resources via recycling, Plus the unlimited resource of his creativity. The mechanisms to find solutions are on the one hand mail's Curiosity to detect and develop new methods and technologies and on the other hand the feedback control system of raw materials supply. This feedback control system is triggered by price increases due to scarcities spurring incentives to find new Solutions in a market economy system. 

reserves; resources; geopotential; lifetime of reserves; reserve/consumption (R/C) ratios; estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of crude oil; peak oil; price; replacement of functions; sustainable development; feedback control system of raw materials supply